Beer Predictions for 2009
With 2009 in the rear-view mirror, it’s always fun to look forward to 2010 and try and guess what may happen. If anything, the brewing industry has shown an ability to keep us guessing, but here’s just a few things I see happening in my crystal ball.
First, the craft beer surge will continue. This isn’t going out on a limb, I realize that, but for those of us who work within the industry, it’s a big concern. While I can’t make guesses on the economy in general, many who have “traded down” from wine and liquor to craft beer will continue to appreciate beer even if their incomes increase. On the other end of the spectrum, the Blue Moon trend is convincing typically brand-oriented drinkers to venture out and try something different, and as well all know, craft beer lovers have little brand loyalty (not when compared to militant BMC drinkers).
If you’re wondering what to expect in the glass, I hope you like hops. The hop shortage is far behind us. This past summer we saw a glut of hops on the market and those contracts are still in full force. Additionally, breweries who planted farms during the shortage are starting to see real production from those plots. There will be opportunities for brewers to buy hops without a contract which will drive prices down (again) and allow brewer’s to be frivilous with their hops.
This leads to another trend I expect to take off, the mild, or the session ale. BrewDog made headlines with their Nanny State release, a mild with a hop impact more intense than some Imperial IPA I have tried. Sierra Nevada and Dogfish Head’s Limb and Life stole the spotlight from Life and Limb in my opinion, a highly hopped, woody session ale coming in at 5% but with immensely more flavor than you might expect. Cheap hops will allow breweries to toy with the idea of hopped up milds as an alternative for those who love the pernicious weed but aren’t looking to catch such a quick buzz.
Finally, I’m going to try and identify the next big thing. Now that collaboration is the new barrel-aging (which was the new imperializing), it’s time to find something new. I believe this next “thing” will be appellation. We’re already seeing it happen but you may not have noticed. On the West Coast big dogs Sierra Nevada and Rogue are growing their own barley, a trend which is happening around the country. Once breweries have access to their own malt, their own hops, their own water source, and (of course) a proprietary yeast, they can play with variations on the same recipe based on ingredients alone. Sierra Nevada has three harvest ales on the market now: Southern Hemisphere, Harvest Ale and Chico Estate. In fact, tomorrow, start looking for bottles of Rogue’s Chatoe Rogue Dirtoir Black Lager to hit the selves, a black lager brewed using products grown entirely by the “Rogue National Department of Agriculture.”
What do you see happening in the coming twelve months. I’d love to see all your predictions and revisit them this time next year and see who’s got the best.
6 Comments to “Beer Predictions for 2009”
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Love the idea that appellation will be big next. That would be very interesting. As an extension of that I hope more breweries list the ingredients they use (the malt/hop varieties) on bottle labels.
And session bitters should definitely increase in quality and number. The UK is all about session beer and from certain quaters they have been getting better and better – pale and hoppy, so flavourful but less than 4% ABV. Low ABV combined with big flavour (NOT Nanny State hop-tea though, I hope) is the future!
I agree on the session beers. At least I hope that comes to pass. I actually think that will be the next “thing”. Maybe appellation will be the next next thing as it may take time for enough brewers to grow their own ingredients to make that a real “thing”.
I will echo Mark on this one. Getting more label info would be great, especially for those learning more and more. The hop and malt varieties also helps bolster the case of beer being as – if not more – complex than wine.
I’ll third the idea of more info on labels. Not only do I love reading my beers, but every little bit of ingredient info helps when you’re a budding homebrewer.
I think we’re going to see an increase in cask offerings and a fury with ‘american lambic’…authentic spontaneous fermentation right in the U.S.
[...] a recent post fellow Hoppress writer Mario Rubio noted that “collaboration is the new barrel-aging.” Indeed, [...]